Where did Social Democrats' votes go

The Social Democratic Party's post-election analysis (fi, PDF) on why they lost is 100 pages long. Yikes. It's better than what the Helsingin Sanomat article led me to believe, mainly by being so damned long that every theory ever presented on the topic is sure to be included somewhere in there. On the other hand, it keeps using the phrase "the damage and the furor" when talking about the centre-right parties' attitude toward the Social Democrats.

The most interesting aspect of the report to me, however, were the numbers on who gained votes from whom. Based on polling data, here are how the Social Democrats' 2007 supporters voted in 2003:

  • Social Democrats 460'000
  • did not vote 40'000
  • Left Alliance 26'000
  • National Coalition Party 22'000
  • Centre Party 19'000
  • Green League 10'000
  • plus various other groups
Compared to 2003, the Social Democrats lost votes to:
  • did not vote 60'000
  • Coalition 45'000
  • Left Alliance 35'000
  • Centre 34'000
  • Greens 20'000
  • True Finns 12'000
  • plus various other groups
On balance they lost 23'000 votes to the Coalition, 20'000 votes to apathy, 15'000 votes to the Centre, up to 12'000 votes to the True Finns, 10'000 votes to the Greens, and 9'000 votes to the Left Alliance. They lost about 60'000 votes to their right (including the Greens) compared to just 9'000 to their left, discounting minor parties. Those figures counsel against any sharp moves to the left, I would think.

The report also contains some demographic breakdowns, though only by area traits. High average income, low unemployment rate, a lot of children, and few retirees each correlated with bigger losses for the SDP. Those were also the areas in which the Coalition made especially big gains. The Centre's losses came almost entirely in low income areas and areas with few children. The Greens mainly increased their support in low income areas and areas with few children.

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