First 2012 presidential poll

Because it's never too early:

  • Sauli Niinistö (National Coalition Party) 32 percent
  • Matti Vanhanen (Centre Party) 26
  • Erkki Tuomioja (Social Democratic Party) 9
  • Heidi Hautala (Green League) 7
  • Timo Soini (True Finns) 6
  • Päivi Räsänen (Christian Democrats) 3
  • Matti Korhonen (Left Alliance) 1
  • Eva Biaudet (Swedish People's Party) 1
  • margin of error +-3
Finally we have incontrovertible proof that the Niinistö juggernaut is unstoppable.

But seriously, while the poll's predictive value is tiny, it still tells us something about the current state of public opinion. For example, it's notable that the Social Democratic candidate on the list is former Foreign Minister Tuomioja, not party leader Eero Heinäluoma, and that Tuomioja was supported by a whopping seven percent. The left doesn't have a leading, broadly popular figure right now (who will be eligible in 2012). On the right, by contrast, we find several politicians who have support outside their own parties parties, namely Speaker Niinistö, Prime Minister Vanhanen, and even Soini.

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