2007-04-09

Minister lists

It's a bit early for this, but what the heck. Arno Ahosniemi (fi) of Kauppalehti Presso, Timo J Anttila (fi) of Ilta-Sanomat, and Jaakko Hautamäki (fi) of Helsingin Sanomat have posted preliminary lists of ministers. By aggregating the results we get a pretty good idea of current conventional wisdom.

Prime Minister: Matti Vanhanen (AA) (TJA) (JH) - Duh. Vanhanen (Centre Party) as the Prime Minister is certain, of course, unless he fails to form a government and no one expects that to happen.

Minister of Finance: Jyrki Katainen (AA) (TJA) (JH) - Katainen (National Coalition Party) as the Minister of Finance is nearly certain; the portfolio has more often than not gone to the leader of the other big government party and there's no indication that Katainen won't take the spot.

Minister for Foreign Affairs: Paula Lehtomäki (AA) (TJA) (JH); Sauli Niinistö, Ilkka Kanerva, Esko Aho (TJA) (JH); Olli Rehn, Alexander Stubb (JH) - If the Centre gets the portfolio, it's in all likelihood going to rising star Lehtomäki, though Rehn and Aho have been mentioned. The Coalition's leading candidate is Niinistö with Kanerva and Stubb being outside possibilities at best.

Minister for Foreign Trade and Development: Leif Fagernäs (AA); Mari Kiviniemi, Suvi Lindén, Stefan Wallin, Astrid Thors (TJA) - Who knows?

Minister of Justice: Tuija Brax (AA) (JH); Astrid Thors (TJA) - Brax (Green League) is mentioned because she's a jurist, but it's entirely possible that her party won't get the portfolio.

Minister of the Interior: Jari Koskinen (AA) (TJA); Ilkka Kanerva (TJA) - Koskinen (Coalition) is getting some portfolio by most accounts.

Minister of Regional and Municipal Affairs: Hannes Manninen (AA) (TJA) (JH); Pekka Ravi (TJA) - Manninen (Centre) is his party's acknowledged expert on municipal affairs and the subject is very important to the party.

Minister of Defense: Marja Tiura (AA); Tarja Cronberg, Ilkka Kanerva (TJA) - Another crapshoot.

Co-ordinate Minister for Finance: Astrid Thors (AA); Mari Kiviniemi (TJA) - This portfolio is a bit of a consolation prize. I would think that it goes to either the Greens or the Swedish People's Party as their second spot, which would rule out Kiviniemi (Centre)

Minister of Education: Sari Sarkomaa (AA) (TJA); Mauri Pekkarinen (TJA) (JH); Anu Vehviläinen, Paula Risikko (TJA) - Sarkomaa (Coalition) and Pekkarinen (Centre) are both widely tipped to be ministers.

Minister of Culture: Anu Vehviläinen (AA) (TJA) - I have no idea why Vehviläinen (Centre) would be particularly suited for this position.

Minister of Agriculture and Forestry: Juha Korkeaoja (AA); Kimmo Tiilikainen, Katri Komi, Jari Koskinen (TJA) - Koskinen (Coalition) is a farmer by trade. Centre has several possible candidates - Korkeaoja, Tiilikainen, Komi.

Minister of Transport and Communications: Jyri Häkämies (AA) (TJA) (JH) - Häkämies (Coalition) is Katainen's right-hand man and in a leading role for Coalition in the government negotiations. Transport issues are important to his electoral district, Kymi. And by transport issues I mean lines at the Russian border.

Minister of Trade and Industry: Mari Kiviniemi (AA) (TJA); Mauri Pekkarinen, Paula Lehtomäki - All candidates are from the Centre. Kiviniemi, the party's lone MP from the Helsinki electoral district, is widely expected to become a minister.

Minister of Social Affairs and Health: Paula Risikko (AA) (TJA); Sari Sarkomaa (TJA) - Risikko (Coalition) is the party vice chair and has her education in health.

Minister of Health and Social Services: Tarja Cronberg (AA); Juha Rehula (TJA) - This is another portfolio that isn't particularly wanted.

Minister of Labour: Mauri Pekkarinen (AA); Anne Holmlund, Inkeri Kerola (TJA) - During the election campaign, the Coalition criticized the Social Democratic incumbent despite the decrease in unemployment and demanded that the next Minister of Labour has to come from some other party. The pressure will be on for whoever lands the job next.

Minister of the Environment: Stefan Wallin (AA) (TJA); Heidi Hautala (TJA) - Wallin (Swedish People's Party) held this post in the previous government and most reviews were positive.

To approach this from a different angle, here are the names that are mentioned by all three sources, sorted by party.

Centre Party
Kiviniemi, Mari (Minister of Trade and Industry?)
Lehtomäki, Paula (Minister for Foreign Affairs?)
Manninen, Hannes (Minister of Regional and Municipal Affairs?)
Pekkarinen, Mauri
Vanhanen, Matti (Prime Minister?)
Vehviläinen, Anu (Minister of Culture?)

National Coalition Party
Häkämies, Jyri (Minister of Transport and Communications?)
Katainen, Jyrki (Minister of Finance?)
Koskinen, Jari (Minister of the Interior?)
Risikko, Paula (Minister of Social Affairs and Health?)
Sarkomaa, Sari

Green League
Cronberg, Tarja

Swedish People's Party
Wallin, Stefan (Minister of the Environment?)

That would leave five portfolios unfulfilled assuming they stick with 18 ministers.

2 comments:

Passer-by said...

Most of those names are pretty easy picks. I think it's most interesting to see what portfolios will Greens and Swedish PP get. There's also the regional factor in the play when the ministers are chosen: they try to include people from all over the country.

Ari said...

Re the regional angle, the 13 names I listed at the bottom come from Helsinki (2), Pohjois-Karjala (2), Oulu, Lappi, Keski-Suomi, Uusimaa, Kymi, Pohjois-Savo, Häme, Vaasa, and Varsinais-Suomi. That leaves Pirkanmaa, Satakunta, and Etelä-Savo (and Åland, but they're not getting a portfolio).